05/08/2026

Solar activity was at low levels this past week with occasional
B-class and isolated low-level C-class flares. The largest event of
the period was a C1.4/Sf flare from Region 4429 on May 5.

There are currently six numbered regions on the visible disk as 4434
decayed to plage and Region 4428 rotated beyond the western limb as
an E-type group. The remaining regions mostly showed signs of decay.
Region 4425 appeared stable, though full characterization is
difficult due to extreme limb proximity. Region 4429 showed continued submergence and decay, decreasing in both area and length along with
a total loss of penumbra.

Region 4431 showed some minor new development, with a few small spots
emerging in both polarities following recent decay. Region 4432 had
minor emergence in its intermediate spots, despite an overall gradual
decrease in extent. The remaining regions were mostly stable.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph

Flare probabilities increase beginning May 8 as up to two active
regions rotate into view from beyond the eastern limb.
Considering the size of these regions and recent far-side eruptions
seen in coronagraph imagery, solar activity is expected to increase
May 8 - 9 with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flares and
a slight chance for X-class (R3/strong or greater) flares.

Solar wind parameters returned to near background levels as transient
coronal mass ejection (CME) influences waned. Solar wind speeds
averaged around 375 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in a
positive (away) orientation for the majority of the period with a few short-lived oscillations into a negative (toward) orientation during
the period.

Spaceweather.com[1] reports a big and active sunspot hiding behind the
sun's northeastern limb is about to reveal itself, rotating into view
this weekend. A dramatic M2-class solar flare on May 7th confirmed
its approach. The unnamed sunspot has produced at least 5 CMEs in
recent days. If this production continues, Earth could soon be in
line for a solar storm.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere,ÿ May 7, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

Overall solar activity declined slowly but steadily in late April and
early May. Eruptive activity was low, with active regions mostly and
featuring a simple magnetic field configuration. Geomagnetic activity
increased significantly only on May 4, after which the polarity of
the longitudinal component of the interplanetary magnetic field
returned to positive values. The ionosphere returned to a state
favorable for shortwave propagation since May 6.

Solar activity is likely to remain at current levels, while should
decline shortly and slightly in mid-May. Geomagnetically quiet days
can be expected starting May 10 again. Prior to that, there will be a
slight increase in activity, likely on May 8. No other significant
fluctuations are likely.

The latest solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNcaoB7be-k[2]

The Predicted Planetary A Index for May 9 to May 15 is 10, 6, 5, 5,
5, 5, and 25 with a mean of 8.7. The Predicted Planetary K Index is
3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 5 with a mean of 2.6. 10.7 centimeter flux is
130, 130, 125, 125, 120, 115, and 120 with a mean of 123.6.
ÿ

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[6]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST.


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNcaoB7be-k
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/29/2026

Solar activity has remained at low levels this past week. The largest event of the period was a C3.4 flare originating from Region 4446.ÿ

Solar activity has remained at low levels this past week. The largest event of the period was a C3.4 flare originating from Region 4446.ÿ ÿ There are nine numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4452 showed notable growth and new flux emergence. Region 4450 decayed to plage, though unassociated transitory pores were observed to its east and west. Region 4443 decayed into a unipolar spot as it approached the west limb following the loss of its leading components. Regions 4453, 4454 and 4455 were numbered during the period. Far-side satellite imagery from Solar Orbiter indicates that Region 4455 is likely a large bipolar group with its trailing opposite-polarity spots still located behind the east limb and was numbered proactively due to its flaring potential. All other regions either continued in slow decay or remained stable. A faint, potentially partial-halo, coronal mass ejection (CME) first seen in LASCO C2 imagery on May 26 and subsequently in GOES/CCOR1 was analyzed. No obvious on-disk source exists. Modeling suggests a possible glancing blow at Earth on May 31. Additionally, narrow eruptions associated with flaring from newly numbered Region 4444 were seen in SUVI imagery but these features are well northward of the ecliptic plane with no Earth-directed components. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. ÿ Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through May 30. There remains a chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/minor-moderate) driven by the eruptive potential of the southeast sunspot groups and newly numbered Region 4454. ÿ Solar wind parameters remained slightly elevated and possibly indicative of weak negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS)influences.ÿ ÿ Solar wind speeds varied modestly between 350 and 425 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (towards the Sun), though minor deviations were observed later in the period. ÿ Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly enhanced due to weak coronal high speed stream (-CH HSS) influences through May 29. A return toward near-background, nominal conditions is anticipated by May 30. Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, May 28, 2026 ÿ Observations of the far side of the Sun by the Solar Orbiter probe showed us how a new and relatively large active region was approaching the northeastern limb of the solar disk. But it wasn't until it began to emerge on May 28 (designated as AR 4455) that it became clear the recent rise in solar activity would continue. Furthermore, the only significant coronal hole in the higher northern heliographic latitudes is sufficiently far from other active regions, so we need not expect a significant intensification of the solar wind. Therefore, we could expect calmer conditions in the Earth's magnetosphere and, at the same time, higher usable frequencies in the ionosphere for long-distance communications before their seasonal decline. However, summer in the ionosphere of the Earth's northern hemisphere, with higher attenuation in the lower ionosphere during the long days, will often be enlivened by sporadic E layers in the mid-latitudes until August. ÿ For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/06/2026

A series of M-class flares - all from Region 4479 - pushed solar activity to high levels this week. The largest of the flares was an M3.5 on July 1.
ÿ
An earlier flare from this region, M1.3 accompanied by a 1N H-alpha flare which peaked late July 1, appears to have been associated with dimming and a coronal mass ejection (CME) first identified in CCOR-1 imagery. Initial analysis suggests the CME has an Earth-directed component, although the speed derived from the available imagery was only 300-450 km/s. Further analysis is needed to increase confidence.
ÿ
Flux emergence and some consolidation around the leader and trailer spots was observed in Region 4479 during the period. Region 4478 produced an M8.5/2b flare on July 1 following occasional C-class flaring. This region also exhibited flux emergence in the intermediate spots and around the leader spot. Finally, Region 4480 was quiescent although some intermediate spots developed.
ÿ
Solar activity is likely to decrease to moderate levels (R1-R2, minor-moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-strong), particularly from Region 4479.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters were enhanced with CME passage. Solar wind speeds have ranged from approximately 360 - 425 km/s. The CME from June 30 is expected to arrive early on July 3, bringing disturbed solar wind conditions that are expected to last into July 4. There is enough uncertainty around the CME timing that an arrival mid-to-late on July 2 is possible.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, July 2, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

Near the extensive active region AR4478, which the Solar Orbiter had been observing for several days before it rose on the southeastern limb of the solar disk, a small region, AR4479, was initially discovered. Both regions grew rapidly in the following days, while the configuration of their magnetic fields indicated nearby increased eruptive activity. High-energy flares occurred primarily on and after June 30, while some were accompanied by CMEs.

Because the CMEs occurred near the solar central meridian, Earth was strongly affected by an intensified solar wind. Shortwave propagation conditions were favorable during the so-called positive phase of the disturbance on June 30, but very unfavorable during the negative phase on July 1. A similar pattern may recur in the coming days!

The predicted Planetary A Index for July 7 to July 12 is 14, 5, 5, 12, 15, 12, and 8, with a mean of 10.1. The predicted Planetary K Index is 4, 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.3. Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 130, 125, 125, 125, 120, 125, and 120, with a mean of 124.3.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1]ÿand the ARRL Technical InformationÿService web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. Forÿan explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[4]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/10/2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1.5/1N flare on July 8 from Region 4482.

There are currently five numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4482 demonstrated continued growth and developed a delta spot within its trailing spot group. Region 4485 displayed new flux emergence. Regions 4486 and 4487 were newly numbered during the period. Region 4481 was stable and remained an unremarkable unipolar group.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through July 11, with a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3/strong and greater) events. This flare probability is almost entirely due to the complexity and potential of Region 4482.

Solar wind parameters reflected near ambient background conditions. Solar wind speeds were generally near 400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector.

Enhancements are anticipated to begin on July 9 and continue through July 11 with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS).

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, July 9, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

The power flux of solar radio noise at a frequency of 2800 MHz (at a wavelength of 10.7 cm), which is measured precisely every day at noon local time in Penticton, Canada, and is referred to as the "solar flux," remains at a relatively low level. The reason is that the number of observed sunspot groups on the solar disk dropped to just three on July 7, the lowest number recorded during a single solar rotation (the following day, their number increased to five). The largest active region, NOAA 4482, which we observe in the southeast of the solar disk, has not changed significantly in size and continues to produce moderate-intensity flares on a regular basis. All three coronal holes are currently relatively far from it. The intensity of the solar wind is changing only slightly; periods of increased geomagnetic activity alternate with quiet days, making it impossible to accurately predict future developments.

A more pronounced increase in solar activity is expected in the second half of July (with a gradual increase in solar flux up to 180 s.f.u.). More significant geomagnetic activity can be expected if major solar flares occur, especially if they occur near or west of the central meridian. This is likely to happen sometime in the second half of July.

The predicted Planetary A Index for July 11 to 17 is 12, 8, 5, 5, 5, 10, and 8, with a mean of 7.6. The predicted Planetary K Index is 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, and 3, with a mean of 2.7. Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 125, 120, 125, 130, 135, 135, and 135, with a mean of 129.3.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1]ÿand the ARRL Technical InformationÿService web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. Forÿan explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[4]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS